Hello everyone I hope this finds you well.
As I watched last night’s match vs Watford, it felt like one game too many at the moment, we rotated, and probably had to, but for one reason or another it seemed (to me) to leave us very vulnerable between the lines and every time Watford picked up the ball in the midfield, it appeared that they quickly got behind us and the defence had multiple runners coming at them, both with and without the ball. Our defence actually seemed to cope with this pretty well, with a series of blocks, runs to slow down and engage danger and tackles (or fouls). I think it’s fair to say Watford probably deserved to win it more than us and most of us will take a point.
So that started me thinking. We’ve all had this XG/XP discussion recently, and whilst it’s clear that data alone is slightly flawed, it’s also not completely irrelevant. One way or another, this season, the opposition creates more clear chances than us on a regular basis, whilst we win the game. Now, some of that is simple in my opinion. In Pandur, we have one of the best five keepers in the league, we have a mix of outstanding and very good defenders in Hughes, Egan, Ajayi, Coyle, Famewo etc, then we have both very creative and clever players on the ball like Miller, Crooks, Hirakawa, Giles and three players who have finished chances clinically in McBurnie, Joseph and Geldhardt.
Put simply we defend our box very well, and are better than the opposition in the attacking areas. Football can be a remarkably straightforward game when those things happen. On top of that we have a manager whose in game decisions are largely very good, and if something is going wrong, he tends to quickly remedy them. I think all of these factors come together to make a potent cocktail that nerds and data geeks don’t want to down in one. And don’t get me wrong, nobody in black and amber is complaining about this.
I guess my secondary question is, is this sustainable? Are you able to replicate it long term? The answer to that is clearly, I don’t know. I have Forest mates who basically said this was last season for them, they kept winning and ended up towards the top of the Premier League, despite the data saying they were no better than this season. Are we this seasons Forest? Maybe, but a word of warning would be that they did eventually fade and ended up missing out on the elite European places they chased (even if they still made the Europa league). Our owner is a damned sight slimmer than the big top wearing Greek lad in Nottingham, but I’d say if there’s one club in the country who are being ran a little like us, it’s them.
Nothing surprises me about Sergej now, when I said at the start of December he was our best manager since Silva, I did get a few doubters, and if I’m truly honest, one of them was me. We all saw the potential to fall off slightly, but rather than do that he’s gone the opposite way and we’ve just continued to roll with aplomb. Within that run we’ve seen games where (shock horror) we’ve won and been much the better team. The wins against Preston, Wrexham and Southampton weren’t lucky and we were clearly deserving, so it’s not like we’re just pulling every game out of our arse with barefaced luck.
Maybe as City fans for many years, this is a strange feeling for us, we’re used to playing well and losing, not being just ok and winning or actually playing badly and getting points. We’ve certainly picked up a new generation of trolls from the opposing fans whose online tears could fill a small brewery, that’s always fun because Hull City AFC will always be seen as “less than” to some clubs who seem to live their lives like a gigantic time capsule, refusing to acknowledge that we’ve now spent 95% of the last twenty years in the top two flights. It’s never not going to be fun watching this happen, and as a club we’ve not really had a reputation for good luck, so perhaps we should just enjoy the ride.
More than ever, I’ll be interested in what you all think dear readers. Clearly it’s more than luck, it’s good management and players who are elite in both boxes, but will it last? And is the Bosnian genius the architect that can keep the hot streak going? These are the answers that will define our season, and the words “Dare to dream” have never seemed more poignant.
Up the lucky, shithouse, worst team you’ve ever played Tigers folks. Take care.